철도 충돌탈선 사고 위험도 평가를 위한 사고 진전 시나리오 개발

초록

Accident scenarios analysis is a course to understand, analyze, and describe a process of an accident and behavior pattern of the parties to an accident. In the method of accident scenarios is that we described patterns represented between accidents and hazardous conditions, and then provide data to prevent the accident. In this paper, we made a study on accident scenarios to analyze systematically and evaluate quantitatively train collision/derailment risk. Initial hazard events which determine a probability for train collision/derailment were defined from the analysis of accident history data as a form of FTA and we defined relation between initial events and hazardous conditions caused to train collision/derailment accident. The accident proceeding scenario of initial events which estimate the severity of accidents was proposed as a form of ETA. Resulting risk assessment model of train collision/derailment accident will be produced by a probability and severity of initial event.