The Economic Impacts and Policy Implication of Technology Development for 500km/h High-Speed Rail in Korea

초록

Following the success of the KTX (Korea’s high-speed rail system) with a maximum operating speed of 300 km/h opened in 2004, experts in Korea started a research on the development of key technologies for high-speed rail (HSR) with a top speed of 500km/h. This paper is a preliminary impact study of the research. It first reviews HSR experiences around the world, in terms of traffic and economic impacts of HSR, and presents a preliminary analysis of 500km/h HSR in Korea. It is estimated that introduction of 500km/h HSR with a 54% of travel time reduction will increase HSR passengers to about 9.8 million (about 78% of market share) between Seoul and Busan. It is a 23% of growth compared to the base scenario. Along with conventional rail passengers, air passengers are expected to be significantly impacted by the 500 km/h HSR. As a function of HSR travel time, the estimated market shares of both KTX and 500 km/h HSR compared to air are very comparable with previous international experiences. Based on the forecasted traffic, estimated total benefits are $758 million per year. In addition to the quantitative analysis, the paper addresses why the China government speed up work on the HSR network and the technology development of HSR, and discusses policy implication of the development for 500km/h HSR technology to Korea.