A revised study for risk assessment models of railway casualty accidents

초록

This study shows risk-based evaluation results and trends of railway casualty accidents for passengers, railway staffs and Member of public on the national railway in South Korea. These accidents occupy more than 50% of railway accidents and 90% of the total risk of railway in South Korea. To evaluate risk of these accidents, accident scenarios were revised by the review of the accident history and previous studies. Each accident scenario model consists of an occurrence scenario model and a progress scenario model. The occurrence scenario refers to the occurrence process of the event before the hazardous event. The progress scenario means the progress process of the event after the hazardous event. Based on the accident appearance scenario, a probability evaluation model of each hazardous event was developed by using the fault tree analysis technique. In addition, to assess severities of progress scenarios, the event tree analysis technique was applied. To test the feasibility of the developed scenario models, more than 2400 domestic railway casualty accidents that occurred between 2003 and 2008 were investigated and quantitative and qualitative analyses were performed using the developed information system.