Risk-based evaluations and trends of railway casualty accidents on the national railway of South Korea

초록

This study shows risk-based evaluation results and trends of casualty accidents for passengers, railway staffs and MOP (Member of public) on the national railway in South Korea. In this study, casualty accidents are concerned with all kinds of accidents that cause injuries of people on railway premises besides train accidents. They include accidents raised by third party hazards, but exclude train accidents such as derailments and collisions. These accidents occupy more than 50% of railway accidents and 90% of the total risk of railway in South Korea. Consequently, to prevent these accidents, the establishment of a safety management which is based on the hazard analysis and the quantitative risk assessment is required. In this study, to evaluate risk of these accidents, the hazardous events and the hazardous factors were identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. Totally 28 initiating hazardous events that could potentially lead to casualty accidents were defined. A probability evaluation model for each hazardous event which was based on the accident appearance scenario was developed by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. The probability for each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical data and structured expert judgment. In addition, the severity assessment model utilized by the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique was composed of the accident progress scenarios. And the severity for the hazardous events was estimated using fatalities and weighted injuries. Since this study takes the first step in quantitative risk assessment of casualty accidents on the national railway in South Korea, results of this study have many meanings in railway safety of South Korea. Also, the risk assessment model developed can be effectively utilized in defining the risk reduction measures in connection with option analysis.