대중교통수요의 일별 분포를 고려한 통행배정 모형의 허용 오차 설정 방법

초록

Depending on the diversity of passenger behavior and incompleteness of estimation models, errors in demand forecasting are inevitable. Therefore, the concept of error tolerance is generally used in demand forecasting. However, guidance on tolerance is too simple, and clarity of the tolerance calculation process is insufficient. In this study, a new method for setting the error tolerance of public transit passenger assignment, considering the characteristics of daily distribution of public transit passenger volume, was presented. In terms of the statistical reliability of the model, a guide for setting the error tolerance was presented, and a mathematical method was developed to set the error tolerance for trip assignment in the analysis target area using the average and standard deviation, which are parameters of the OD volume distribution. The method for setting the error tolerance, developed using smart card data, was applied to Daejeon City; it was confirmed that method was applicable to setting error tolerance for public transit trip assignments under the current conditions in which smart card data has become common.

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