Quantitative Risk Assessment Models and Safety Performances for South Korea’s Railway

초록

The objective of this study is to introduce quantitative risk assessment models and safety performances for South Korea’s Railway. The developing process of risk assessment models followed the requirements of the common safety methods (CSM) suggested in EU. Following the process, hazardous events and hazardous factors were identified by gathering various accident reports and information. Then, the accident scenario models were built up. Each accident scenario model consists of an occurrence scenario model and a progress scenario model. The occurrence scenario refers to the occurrence process of the event before the hazardous event. The progress scenario means the progress process of the event after the hazardous event. To evaluate the risks, the frequency of each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical accident data and structured expert judgments by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. In addition, to assess the severity of each hazardous event, the ETA (Event Tree Analysis) technique and other safety techniques were applied. To manage a large amount of accident/incident data and risk assessment models, the Railway Risk Assessment and Information Management System (RAIMS) was developed. To test the feasibility of the developed models, domestic railway accidents were investigated and quantitative analyses were performed using RAIMS. As a result of analyses, this paper provides empirically based FN-curves. FN-curves are a graphical presentation of information about the frequency of fatal accidents in a system and the distribution of the numbers of fatalities in such accidents.